Inter-group Gijons

Will we see a "disgrace of Hamburg" or a "disgrace of Frankfurt" tonight? The 24 team format of the Euros can allow for that

The European Championships are nicely set up. Four groups have finished playing all games, and groups E and F play their last rounds tonight.

Both matches in Group E are scheduled for 9:30 pm IST, and both matches in group F for 00:30 IST (tomorrow morning). That the last rounds in each group happen together is a consequence of the Disgrace of Gijon - the infamous game between West Germany and Austria in the 1982 World Cup where the two conspired to engineer a 1-0 win for West Germany that put both teams through (at the expense of Algeria).

However, the format of the Euros means that there is a possibility of “Gijon” in both groups. And this has to do with the weird rules for qualification in the tournament.

24 teams started the Euros, divided into six groups of 4. Each group is a round robin, with the top two going through straight, along with the “four best third placed teams”. At the time of writing, Germany, Spain, Austria and England have qualified as group winners; and Switzerland, Italy, France and Denmark as group runners up (Denmark getting there by the skin of their teeth, pipping Slovenia on the basis of their qualification record).

As things stand, the third placed teams are:

Hungary with 3 points, goal difference -3
Croatia with 2 points, goal difference -3
Slovenia with 3 points, goal difference 0
Netherlands with 4 points, goal difference 0.

So the Netherlands are through. Slovenia are through (better goal difference wrt Hungary). Croatia is officially out. And this is where things will get interesting today.

This is how groups E and F look (screenshotting to preserve state).

It will get really interesting tonight, and there is an option to game in both groups.

Group F

Let’s get the easier one out - Group E has multitudes. Group E has one guaranteed third place qualifier, since the third placed team there will have at least 3 points (knocking Croatia out).

In Group F (the later games), Portugal plays debutants Georgia and Turkey play Czech Republic (or, as commentators in the tournaments are labouring to say, Turkiye play Czechia).

Assuming Georgia don’t beat Portugal, both Turkey and Czech Republic can go through if Czech Republic beat Turkey by 1 goal.

That result will put Czech Republic to 4 (second place) and Turkey to 3 points with a goal difference of -2 (just better than Hungary), sending both through. It will be a Pareto optimal result.

Except that Georgia, despite playing their first major tournament, have shown they are no pushovers - giving Turkey a scare and drawing with Czech Republic. And their game against Portugal happens at the same time as Turkey-Czech Republic (lessons learnt from Gijon). If Georgia beats Portugal, then Turkey-Czech Republic becomes a knockout, with the Turks needing at least a draw.

However, if Turkey and Czech Republic were to notice that Portugal is comfortably beating Georgia, they can strategically let in goals so that Czech Republic is ahead by exactly one goal.

We might see Wikipedia articles on “disgrace of Hamburg” soon.

Group E

This is more interesting, and complicated. After two rounds, all four teams are on three points, having one game each. Romania play Slovakia, and Belgium play Ukraine.

If both games are drawn, all four teams will be on four points, but Ukraine (in fourth place, on goal difference) will go out simply because they are in fourth place, despite earning more points than a lot of third place teams.

This means a draw is enough for Ukraine only if Romania-Slovakia is decisive.

But then, both Romania and Slovakia know that if they draw, that will put both teams on to 4 points and send both through. This is irrespective of any other results in any other games. So, before any “disgrace of Hamburg”, we might also see a “disgrace of Frankfurt”!

(Even if Romania-Slovakia has a decisive result, the loser can go through as a third placed team, but that is contingent on Belgium beating Ukraine, so they wouldn’t want to take that chance)

The game will be interesting to watch at a meta-level, but unlikely to make for good viewing either since neither team will be interested in scoring.

Predictions

Simply game theory says Romania and Slovakia will draw, most likely 0-0.

Czech Republic will beat Turkey by 1 goal (what the scoreline will be will depend on when Portugal take a comfortable lead over Georgia).

In the other two games, which are harder to predict simply based on game theory, I’ll simply go on the basis of ranking and reputation and predict that Portugal will beat Georgia and Belgium will beat Ukraine.

Most betting sites have location services enabled, and betting is not legal in India, so I’m unable to see actual betting odds.

Longer term predictions

If the above predictions come through, we might be seeing the end of 24 team tournaments with the four best placed winners going through. This simply gives an advantage to teams in groups playing their games later on, since they know what exactly to do.

That said, the next FIFA World Cup (in 2026, in CONCACAF) will have 48 teams, divided into 12 groups of 4, and 8 “best third placed teams” qualifying. I guess it is too late to change that format now! Maybe all the last round games (across all groups) will happen together? But television channels won’t like it one bit.

PS: This entire post is based on discussions with Baada, who has taken his ancient blog private. So it falls to me to blog this.